China Security

Realizing Zero
Zhai Dequan

The elimination of nuclear weapons has become a hot topic in China, not only among political elites but also among ordinary citizens. The explosion of interest in this relatively dormant topic was triggered by Chinese President Hu Jintao’s solemn promise at the recent UN Security Council Summit on Nuclear Non-Proliferation and Nuclear Disarmament to realize universal peace. For the first time, President Hu proposed that the international community forge two treaties: one regarding the principle of the no-first-use of nuclear weapons and the other concerning the total ban of nuclear weapons. The former would achieve an initial guarantee of world peace while the latter would provide a permanent solution.

Nuclear weapons have become a sword of Damocles hanging over our heads, capable of destroying the planet many times over. As proliferation grows, so does the risk of accidental use—not to mention the numerous non-state actors and terrorist organizations that are trying to obtain nuclear weapons and related technology. Mankind can no longer afford to live under this threat of annihilation. To realize the goal of a world without nuclear weapons, the international community and the leaders of the nuclear powers must first reach consensus and demonstrate a strong political will to commit themselves to the goal of nuclear disarmament. Next, the international community needs to put in place multilateral treaties and enforcement mechanisms to realize the commitments of gradually and irreversibly dismantling nuclear weapons. The touchstone for evaluating this path will be the 2010 Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) Review Conference. Last fall, support for denuclearization seemed to be building as UN Resolution 1887, which called on all non-members of the NPT to join the treaty, represented an unprecedented leap forward in the international community’s commitment to nuclear disarmament. This is the biggest advance in disarmament since the mid-1990s, when the legal and diplomatic basis was laid for enforcing tougher penalties against the nations that cheat on nuclear treaties. Nonetheless, it is just the beginning of a long winding road towards a nuclear-free world.

In my view, the key to the international community’s walk toward “Global Zero” is comprehensive improvement of the international security environment. Just to accomplish the goal of nuclear disarmament would be insufficient in itself. As we try to eliminate the existing nuclear weapons, we need to ask why some countries still want to obtain them. Despite the enormous financial, technological and political difficulties some governments still attempt to obtain nuclear weapons because they feel their security, even their survival, is threatened. To reach Zero and make Zero sustainable, we must deal with the underlying causes of proliferation. As the ancient wisdom in the Thirty-Six Stratagems states: “Lifting the soup to stop it from boiling is less effective than extracting the firewood from under the cauldron.” Although we could try to roll back the nuclear programs of Iran and North Korea through sanctions and even the use of force, a wiser solution would be to eliminate the insecurity that it is root of their nuclear obsession—to “extract the firewood”.

This means the international community needs to change the way international relations are conducted by paying more respect to sovereignty and multilateralism, tolerating rather than penalizing differences in worldviews. The international community must reach consensus that a country’s internal problems can only be solved by its own people; global problems can be solved only through cooperation, not by stronger nations overpowering weaker ones. Finally, the great powers should realize that there is no absolute security in the world. Absolute security for one country means absolute insecurity for other countries. If these philosophical adjustments are not made, nuclear disarmament cannot reach its ultimate goal.

To realize global nuclear disarmament, the United States, the sole superpower, must take the lead in making deep cuts of its nuclear stockpile. The United States’ demonstration of its sincere will to complete nuclear disarmament will enable other countries to follow suit. This is particularly true in cases of countries such as Russia, which only the United States is qualified to approach for nuclear disarmament negotiations. US leadership in nuclear disarmament would certainly bring with it positive effects on other strategic armaments, such as biological and chemical weapons and their delivery means, and even on some heavy conventional weapons.[1]

While the United States and Russia start the verifiable and irreversible reduction of their nuclear arsenals—matters which are their own affairs—a UN institution (a council or commission for nuclear disarmament) could be formed in order to supervise this process, and other nuclear powers could be invited to take part as observers, so that they could gather experiences relevant to the later reduction of their own nuclear arsenals. The 13 intermediate steps reached by the 2000 NPT Review Conference and the 60 suggestions put forward by the WMD Commission headed by Dr. Hans Blix, former IAEA Secretary-General, could be taken as guiding references.[2]
For now, nuclear powers should first make commitments to the no first use principle, and not threatening the use nuclear weapons against each other, non-nuclear weapon states or nuclear free zones. They should also speed up the process that will make the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT) and the Fissile Material Cut-off Treaty (FMCT) effective, reduce nuclear weapons’ role in national security planning, and de-target and de-alert nuclear missiles. Research and development of new types of nuclear weapons or other weapons of mass destruction should be halted. Most importantly, as one American scholar rightly put it, the key measure is “Learning not to love the bomb.”

Since China conducted its first nuclear test in 1964, it has committed itself to the no first use policy and to the goal of total ban of nuclear weapons. As the world finally comes together and follows the vision that China first advocated in 1964, China will surely join in the process of nuclear disarmament once the quality and quantity of major nuclear arsenals are reduced to the Chinese level.

Zhai Dequan is Deputy Secretary General, China Arms Control and Disarmament Association

NOTES

[1] Gradual disarmament of nuclear weapons by the NW states with US leading, will surely give impetus to completion of Biological Weapon Convention, perfection of Chemical Weapon Convention and reduction of their delivery means.

[2] The WMD Commission chaired by Dr. Blix provided 60 recommendations for reducing nuclear weapons, which emphasized the importance of “cooperative disarmament” and warned that “all nuclear weapons are dangerous in whosever hands”.