China Security

Choices and Challenges for China’s Nuclear Disarmament Policy
Teng Jianqun

Last April, during his visit to Prague, US President Barack Obama declared that the United States would take the lead in building a “nuclear-free world”. While the announcement helps mend the United States’ image, it has also brought about a rebirth of the international nuclear disarmament process. Along with the rejuvenation of disarmament talks between the United States and Russia have come questions about how China will respond to this development in nuclear disarmament. If other nuclear powers begin the process of in-depth nuclear disarmament, will China follow suit？It is a question asked repeatedly in recent years by scholars and officials all over the world. Recent reports by the US government and speeches by high ranking US officials have even suggested that the United States should put much more effort into persuading China to join a pattern of nuclear disarmament talks or negotiations, similar to US-Soviet diplomacy during the Cold War era.

The irony is that China is not in the position to “follow” any state in this trend, as it has been at the forefront of the disarmament issue for several decades. Looking at what President Obama called for in Prague, much of the content echoes ideas put forth by Chinese Communist Party leaders over a half-century ago. For example, in 1964, China proposed a ban on the first use of nuclear weapons and set forth a path towards total global disarmament. While Obama’s ideas are not original, he wrapped them in new packaging before presenting them to the international community, and thus they made greater reverberations than in any previous time. This instance of Obama “going against the wind” was beneficial to the international security situation, the recent adjustment of relations among great powers, and to each country’s efforts to mitigate the threats they face from nuclear terrorism.

The question is, as a forerunner of the disarmament movement, does China need to recapture the moral flag that Obama has snatched away? As it appears now, China will not wrestle with the United States for the limelight because Beijing has its own strategic considerations. First, the thoroughness, justice and morality of China’s nuclear disarmament policy is universally recognized and its policies such as the no-first use of nuclear weapons, no use of nuclear weapons against non-nuclear weapon states and the nuclear free zone, all far exceed President Obama’s call for a nuclear-free world. China’s position in the realm of moral and just nuclear disarmament is much higher than the United States’ in this regard. As compared with Obama’s initiative, China’s decades of insisting on complete prohibition and thorough destruction of nuclear weapons has been a moral flag in the process of international arms control and disarmament process.

Beijing’s Roadmap to Nuclear Disarmament

To explore China’s current stance on nuclear disarmament, we must start at its source. From its 1949 founding until the 1960s, China’s nuclear policy was primarily influenced by Soviet policy, its own socialist ideology, and Marxism and Leninism’s perceptions of war and peace. Under this logic, only the accumulation of nuclear weapons could dissuade other countries from attacking. Yet when the relationship between the two communist countries began to crack, China adjusted its positions on both its nuclear policy and nuclear disarmament policy to face the changed international situation and relations. On Oct. 16, 1964, after having successfully completed its first nuclear test, China reiterated its stance regarding the complete prohibition and thorough destruction of all the nuclear weapons, declared that it would never be the first to use nuclear weapons at any time or under any circumstances, and made a call for an international conference to discuss the complete prohibition and eventual elimination of nuclear weapons.[1]

On the road to nuclear disarmament, China proposed that the first step would be for agreements banning the use of nuclear weapons.[2] This basic principle of “complete prohibition” followed by “thorough destruction” of nuclear weapons has continued to serve as foundation of China’s nuclear policy to this day.[3]

In 1978, at the first conference of the Special UN General Assembly on Disarmament, the Chinese representative pointed out that, “Disarmament must begin with the militaries of the two superpowers. This is one of the current principles of disarmament and is also one of the main standards for judging whether disarmament is progressing.” China put forth several preliminary steps for the United States and the Soviet Union: pledge not to use nuclear weapons; stop the arms race; and disarm in stages, to name a few.[4]If the United States and the Soviet Union could make great progress in nuclear disarmament, along with the reduction of their conventional forces, China proposed that other countries could then follow their lead.[5]
Since reform and opening, China has increasingly participated in international nuclear disarmament and anti-proliferation processes. In March of 1993, China entered into the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), and in September of 1996, China signed on to the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty (CTBT). In May of 2004, China was also admitted as a new member into the “Nuclear Suppliers Group”, which seeks to curb proliferation through guidelines for nuclear-related exports. Meanwhile, the Chinese government endorsed a substantial body of laws and regulations to control its indigenous nuclear industry.

After over 50 years of application, China’s nuclear disarmament policy has proven to be thorough, fair, and morally just. With regard to thoroughness, China requests nuclear weapons states to legislate at an international level the complete prohibition of nuclear weapons, with a “no-first-use” pledge as a necessary pre-condition for progress. It is fair because China has insisted that relying only on great powers and bilateral agreements to resolve the nuclear disarmament issue is unacceptable, since it often leads to acts of intimidation towards weaker countries. Instead, China advocates the equal and universal participation of all concerned countries to nuclear disarmament negotiations. Rational armaments and disarmaments should be reached through dialogue and cooperation among all nations rather than power politics and double standards. Finally, China’s policy is morally just because it has actually been applied for many decades. In the face of significant pressure, China has maintained a no-first-use commitment and the promise not to attack non-nuclear weapon states with nuclear weapons. Moreover, China itself has stated its willingness to start its own disarmament as soon as the United States and Russia have fairly reduced their nuclear armaments to a lower level.

A New Direction for China’s Nuclear Disarmament Policy?

At the summit meeting of the UN Security Council last September, President Hu Jintao gave a clear-cut response to questions about China’s position on disarmament: “When conditions are ripe, the other nuclear armed countries should enter into a course of multilateral disarmament talks. In order to bring about complete and thorough nuclear disarmament, the international community should, at a suitable point in time, formulate a feasible long-term plan with separate stages, including the establishment of a ‘Treaty on the Complete prohibition of Nuclear Weapons.’” Of course, “other countries” includes China itself.

While President Hu’s statement leaves no doubt as to China’s commitment to a nuclear free world, there are still a number of questions relevant to the country’s nuclear disarmament policy in the predictable future. In light of the US disarmament proposal, should Beijing persist with its old position or make a fresh start? Should China proceed with new promises and its own in-depth nuclear disarmament? Should it actively follow along, or should it quietly observe developments in the major of nuclear weapon states and then react? China needs to seriously consider all these issues, especially because, following substantial reduction of nuclear warheads and their delivery systems made by the United States and Russia with their nuclear disarmament, any step taken by China on nuclear issues will reverberate in other countries. From the perspective of establishing an image as a great responsible power and upholding international security and regional stability, China should make a serious and comprehensive assessment of its current nuclear disarmament policy.

The nuclear disarmament policy established by China’s first generation of leaders originated from their deep understanding of these weapons and how they touched upon national security. The first generation of China’s leaders analyzed the use of nuclear weapons in the context of their Marxist philosophies on war and peace and concluded that nuclear weapons and their delivery systems were neither all-powerful nor guarantors of victory. Since the 1940s, China has regarded the prohibition and elimination of nuclear weapons as the duty of the international community, and its own development of such weapons has been of at least two principles: first, nuclear weapons can be the last resort and serve only to dissuade attack and blackmail from other nuclear nations second, since such weapons have hardly been used in war, a minimum stockpile of them is much more rational and economical choice for China.

At the current time, there has been a profound change in the international security environment as the United States and Russia are moving towards large reductions of their nuclear weapons, and medium-sized nuclear-armed states are also considering decreases. In this context, China’s nuclear disarmament policy will be adjusted slightly in form rather than its content. However, in the foreseeable future, China could not completely abandon its long-held positions on the “complete prohibition” and “thorough destruction” of nuclear weapons.

Follow the Leader?

While China has been a positive role model on nuclear issues for several decades, it is the United States that has the greatest impact on the evolution of the international arms control and disarmament process. Its actions can be felt around the globe. When the Bush administration adopted a unilateral arms control policy and abandoned traditional control and disarmament measures, the international process stalled for nearly a decade. Conversely, since President Obama took office, the tone has been changed, giving some hope for the progress in nuclear disarmament. But as the Obama administration outlines its plans for nuclear disarmament, should China be eager to follow along?

China’s position on disarmament will be determined by its strategic considerations such as its ability to deter foreign attacks and the necessity of closely guarding the exact extent of its military capabilities. China’s current nuclear modernization is first and foremost for guaranteeing the safety, survivability and reliability of nuclear weapons and for guaranteeing that its own deterrent force is not weakened in the face of external threats such as the construction of the United State’s missile defense program. Furthermore, the policy of hiding capabilities and biding time has long been a guiding principle in China’s nuclear disarmament policy. China will not compete for credit with the United States in a new campaign for global disarmament. On the contrary, China will quietly wait and see, and will respond at the appropriate time. China is more concerned with actions than with words, and this is precisely the reason why both Chinese officials and scholars reacted with indifference to the US proposition of a nuclear-free world.

In the thirty years since reform and opening, China has actively participated in international arms control and disarmament, signed nearly all treaties and conventions on arms control and disarmament, and entered into all anti-proliferation mechanisms. Compared with the pre-reform and open-up period, China’s nuclear disarmament policy now places more importance on moral considerations. Holding high the moral flag of nuclear disarmament is not only important as a declaration of China’s position, it is also a key component of constructing strategic stability with other countries, especially with the United States. Currently, most of US attention is focused on Russia, but as the two countries make bilateral progress, the United States will certainly pay more attention to China’s nuclear disarmament policy and measures. The United States and China both have moral requirements in this perspective, that is to say, nuclear disarmament measures taken by any country will be regarded as an important steps to abolish the nuclear threat, which should be done by any responsible state for world peace and regional stability. The moral requirement is also a foundation for the two countries’ cooperation in dealing with nuclear threat today.

Dispute still exists within China, however, as to how it should approach America’s nuclear disarmament policy. For example, in regards to when the Nuclear Test Ban Treaty should take effect, some scholars feel that China should do so before the United States in order to claim the moral high ground. However, others worry that once China ratifies the treaty, China would face a “Catch-22” situation since the United States has yet to join. Thus, they feel that only after the United States ratifies the treaty should China begin considering this issue. This debate has not been concluded and will certainly continue.

At present, there seems to be little need for China to rethink its approach to nuclear disarmament. China’s nuclear disarmament policy was formulated after careful consideration by the first generation of China’s Communist Party leadership and has proven to be strategically sound ever since. This policy is based on Marxism’s understanding of war and peace, and combines China’s national interests with the international security environment. This form of policy does not rely on changes in any one area, but instead describes the line that China should maintain on nuclear disarmament from a macroscopic level. It guarantees the development of China’s nuclear forces and that nuclear policy and nuclear disarmament policy will not undergo any large twists and turns. This is not only the most economical nuclear disarmament policy, but also the most effective one. Even though today we face all kinds of changes, China’s nuclear disarmament policy will not undergo any fundamental alteration in the foreseeable future. Changes will only come in the form of packaging and not in basic meaning. The reason for this is not that China is complacent and conservative, or that it does not want strive for new thinking; instead it is because the nuclear disarmament policy formulated by China’s first generation of leaders remains irreplaceable.

*The author would like to acknowledge the William and Flora Hewlett Foundation for supporting this research.

Teng Jianqun is the director of the Center for Arms Control and International Security Studies at the China Institute of International Studies.

NOTES

[1] China felt that the Soviet Union’s “suitable recommendations on a number of great international issues such as disarmament, the prohibition of the use of weapons of mass destruction, a stop on nuclear testing, the elimination of military bases on foreign soil and the removal of armed troops from foreign countries, and holding a summit meeting with the heads of state of the great powers all promoted an easing in the global situation.” (Premier Zhou Enlai’s “Government Work Report” at the Fourth Plenary Conference of the First National People’s Congress on June 26th, 1957); At a meeting for the fortieth anniversary of the victory of the Soviet Union’s October Revolution in November of 1957, Mao Zedong pointed out that, “On the disarmament issue and on the issue of prohibiting the construction, testing, and use of weapons of mass destruction, all of the Soviet Union’s recommendations represent the common position of each socialist nation while also being in accordance with the interests of the people of the world.”
[2] October 16th, 1964: “The Chinese government’s statement on the success of its first detonation of an atomic bomb and its recommendation that all the worlds’ countries’ heads of state meet to discuss the total prohibition and thorough destruction of nuclear weapons.”
[3] In July of 1963, the United States, England, and the Soviet Union signed a section of a treaty on stopping nuclear tests. On the 31st, China released its “announcement on the Chinese government’s call for the complete, thorough, and firm prohibition and elimination of nuclear weapons and its call for the a summit meeting of all countries’ head of state” which described China’s position on completely prohibiting and thoroughly eliminating nuclear weapons. It recommended that, first, all countries declare the complete, thorough, clean, and firm prohibition and elimination of nuclear weapons, not to use nuclear weapons, not to send out nuclear weapons, not to bring in nuclear weapons, not to construct nuclear weapons, not to test nuclear weapons, not to stockpile nuclear weapons, to destroy all the world’s existing nuclear weapons and the tools used to carry them, and to dissolve all existing mechanisms for researching, testing, and producing nuclear weapons. Second, in order to institute the above in steps, the following measures should first be implemented: remove all military bases on foreign soil, remove all nuclear weapons from foreign soil along with the tools used to carry them, create a Asia Pacific nuclear-free zone which includes the United States, the Soviet Union, China, and Japan, create a Central Europe nuclear-free zone, create an Africa nuclear-free zone, create a Latin America nuclear-free zone, don’t in any way bring out or send in nuclear weapons and the technical data for creating them, and stop all nuclear tests. Third, convene a meeting of heads of state to discuss the complete prohibition and thorough destruction of nuclear weapons, the gradual achievement of the complete prohibition and thorough destruction of nuclear weapons, and the adoption of the four measures described above.
[4] The full list is as follows: 1) Declare that they will at no time and in no circumstances resort to the threat or use of nuclear weapons against non-nuclear countries and nuclear-free zones; 2) Withdraw all their armed forces stationed abroad and undertake not to dispatch forces of any description to other countries; dismantle all their military bases and paramilitary bases on foreign soil and undertake not to seek any new ones; 3) Stop their nuclear and conventional arms race and set out to destroy by stages their nuclear weapons and drastically reduce their conventional weapons; 4) Undertake not to station massive forces or stage military exercises near the borders of other countries, and undertake not to launch military attacks, including surprise attacks, against other countries on any pretext; 5) Undertake not to export weapons to other countries for the purpose of bringing them under control or for fomenting wars or abetting threats of war. (http://www.nti.org/db/china/engdocs/unga0678.htm)
[5] In 1978 at the first meeting of the Special U.N. General Assembly on disarmament, the Chinese representative pointed out that, “Disarmament must begin with the militaries of the two superpowers. This is one of the current principles of disarmament and is also one of the main standards for judging whether disarmament is progressing.” China put forth five steps for the United States and the Soviet Union to be the first to institute nuclear disarmament: promise not to first use nuclear weapons, stop the arms race, disarm in stages, and others. “After the United States and the Soviet Union make great progress on destroying nuclear weapons and reducing conventional forces, other countries should go along with the United States and the Soviet Union and destroy all nuclear weapons.” The “Government Work Report” of the Second Plenary Congress of the Sixth National People’s Congress in May of 1984 also pointed out that “the two superpowers take the lead” was China’s “principled stance” on nuclear disarmament. China felt that “possessing more than 95% of the world’s nuclear weapons, the United States and the Soviet Union should first greatly reduce their nuclear weapons; only in this way can other countries take meaningful part in nuclear disarmament.”